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Jada has a way to find the probability of a random outcome being in event A or event B. She says, “We use the probability of the outcome being in event A, then add the probability of the outcome being in event B. Now some outcomes have been counted twice, so we have to subtract the probability of the outcome being in both events so that those outcomes are only counted once.”
Jada's method can be rewritten as:
| population less than 4 million | population at least 4 million | |
|---|---|---|
| name begins with A through M |
11 | 15 |
| name begins with N through Z |
13 | 11 |
For each event, write which of the four states listed here is an outcome in that event.
Use Jada's formula to find the probability that a randomly selected senior has all As and perfect attendance.
The mathematical purpose of this discussion is to formally introduce the addition rule and to discuss how it is applied and interpreted in context.
Tell students that “Jada's formula is called the addition rule.” Display the addition rule “” for all to see, and refer students to the table used previously.
| wearing sneakers | not wearing sneakers | total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| wearing a hat | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| not wearing a hat | 3 | 12 | 15 |
| total | 11 | 14 | 25 |
Here are some questions for discussion.
Substitute the appropriate values into the addition rule and display for all to see: . Ask, “Why is being subtracted?” (It is subtracted because the 8 people that were wearing sneakers and wearing a hat are counted twice when adding the individual events. By subtracting that value, they are counted only once.)
At a cafe, customers order coffee at the bar, and then either go to another table where the cream and sugar are kept or find a seat. Based on observations, a worker estimates that
Use the worker's estimates to find the percentage of all customers who use both cream and sugar for their coffee. Explain or show your reasoning.
What percentage of the different types of juice come in a bottle holding less than 400 mL or are low-sugar? Explain your reasoning.
The purpose of this discussion is to assess student understanding of the addition rule in context.
Invite previously selected groups to share their solutions to each question. Sequence the discussion of the strategies in the order listed in the Activity Narrative. If possible, record and display the students’ work for all to see.
Connect the different responses to the learning goals by asking questions such as: