In this lesson, students encounter the term independent events, which is defined as two events from the same experiment for which the probability of one event is not affected by whether the other event occurs or not, and the term dependent events which is defined as two events from the same experiment for which the probability of one event depends on the result of the other event. The terms are highlighted by using the classic “Monty Hall” problem for which an intuitive answer can lead to the wrong conclusion. A consideration of the dependence of the two events in the problem leads to a better understanding of the conclusion as well as the idea of events being dependent.

Students are given a chance to estimate a probability, then do an experiment to decide whether their estimate is accurate or not. They must make sense of the problem to provide an estimate, and then persevere to solve the problem (MP1).

When students use probability to analyze a situation to determine whether the events are dependent or independent they are looking for and making use of structure (MP2).