Mentally calculate how close the estimate is to the actual value using the difference: .
Actual value: 24.8 grams. Estimated value: 19.6 grams.
Actual value: \$112.11. Estimated value: \$109.30.
Actual value: 41.5 centimeters. Estimated value: 45.90 centimeters.
Actual value: -1.34 degrees Celsius. Estimated value: -2.45 degrees Celsius.
6.2
Activity
For the scatter plot of orange weights from a previous lesson, use technology to find the line of best fit.
What level of accuracy makes sense for the slope and intercept values? Explain your reasoning.
What does the linear model estimate for the weight of the box of oranges for each number of oranges?
number of oranges
actual weight in kilograms
linear estimate weight in kilograms
3
1.027
4
1.162
5
1.502
6
1.617
7
1.761
8
2.115
9
2.233
10
2.569
Compare the weight of the box with 3 oranges to the estimated weight of the box with 3 oranges. Explain or show your reasoning.
How many oranges are in the box when the linear model best estimates the weight? Explain or show your reasoning.
How many oranges are in the box when the linear model does the poorest job of estimating the weight? Explain or show your reasoning.
The difference between the actual value and the value estimated by a linear model is called the residual. If the actual value is greater than the estimated value, the residual is positive. If the actual value is less than the estimated value, the residual is negative. For the data set of the weights of oranges, what is the residual when there are 3 oranges? On the axes for the next question, plot this residual at the point where and has the value of the residual.
Find and graph the residuals for the rest of the data shown by the scatter plot.
Which point on the scatter plot has the residual closest to 0? What does this mean about the weight of the box with that many oranges in it?
How can you use the residuals to decide how well a line fits the data?
6.3
Activity
Match the scatter plots and given linear models to the graph of the residuals.
After the group agrees on all the matches, turn the scatter plots over so that only the residuals are visible. Based on the residuals, which line would produce the most accurate estimates? Which line fits its data the worst?
Student Lesson Summary
When fitting a linear model to data, it can be useful to look at the residuals. Residuals are the difference between the -value of a point in a scatter plot and the value predicted by the linear model for the same -value.
For example, in the scatter plot showing the length of the fish and the age of the fish, the residual for the fish that is 2 years old and 100 mm long is 8.06 mm, because the point is at and the linear function has the value 91.94 mm () when is 2. The residual of 8.06 mm means that the actual fish is about 8 millimeters longer than the linear model estimates for a fish of that same age.
A scatterplot. Horizontal, from 0 to 5, by 0 point 5’s, labeled age of fish, years. Vertical, from 50 to 175, by 5’s, labeled length of fish, millimeters. 12 dots, trend linearly upward and right, dot 1at 1 comma 61 and dot 12 at 4 comma 164 with line of best fit.
When the point on the scatter plot is above the line, it has a positive residual. When the point on the scatter plot is below the line, the residual is a negative value. A line that has smaller residuals is more likely to produce estimates that are close to the actual value.
A residual is the difference between an actual data value and its value predicted by a model. It can be found by subtracting the -value predicted by the linear model from the -value for the data point.
On a scatter plot, the residual can be seen as the vertical distance between a data point and the best-fit line.
The lengths of the dashed segments on this scatter plot show the residuals for each data point.