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In this Warm-up, students examine satellite images that show how the size of the Aral Sea has changed over time. This prepares them for later in the lesson when they will calculate percentages that represent the situation.
Arrange students in groups of 2. Introduce the context of satellite images of a body of water. Use Co-Craft Questions to orient students to the context and elicit possible mathematical questions.
Give students 1–2 minutes to write a list of mathematical questions that could be asked about the situation before comparing questions with a partner.
1977
2006
2019
Invite several partners to share one question with the class and record responses. Ask the class to make comparisons among the shared questions and their own. Ask, “What do these questions have in common? How are they different?” Listen for and amplify language related to the learning goal, such as “area,” “percent increase,” and “percent decrease”.
Explain that these are satellite photos of the Aral Sea, in central Asia. The amount of water in the sea has been decreasing since the 1960s when two rivers, the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya, were diverted to irrigate land to grow cotton and other crops. The Aralkum Desert is taking over the land where the Aral Sea used to be. Invite students to brainstorm how these changes may be affecting the people that live in this region.
In this activity, students examine two tables of information related to the Aral Sea. They choose what pairs of values to compare, and they calculate the percent increase or decrease between the values. They write sentences describing what each percentage represents about the situation. As students choose what aspects of the data to focus on for their calculations, they are making sense of the problem (MP1). As students clearly state what each percentage represents, about the situation, they are attending to precision (MP6).
Use Three Reads to support reading comprehension and sense-making about this problem. Display only the problem stem and the tables, without revealing the questions.
Keep students in the same groups. Give students 8–10 minutes of partner work time.
As more water was diverted to irrigate land, the Aral Sea got smaller and saltier. In 1986, the sea got so shallow that it was divided into two separate seas, the North Aral Sea and the South Aral Sea. In 2005, the Kok-Aral dam was constructed to stop water from leaving the North Aral Sea.
This table shows data that describes how the Aral Sea changed from 1950 to 2010.
| area of irrigated land (square kilometers) |
area of the sea’s surface (square kilometers) |
water level (meters) | salinity (grams per liter) |
fish catch (metric tons) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 30,910 | 65,607 | 52.9 | 10.7 | 48,000 |
| 1960 | 34,930 | 68,478 | 53.5 | 9.9 | 43,430 |
| 1970 | 39,440 | 60,692 | 51.4 | 11.2 | 17,460 |
| 1980 | 51,140 | 51,743 | 45.8 | 16.8 | 11,940 |
| 1990 | 74,000 | 35,349 | north: 40.6 south: 38.3 |
north: 29 south: 30 |
0 |
| 2000 | -- | 24,266 | north: 40.7 south: 33.6 |
north: 30 south: 70 |
1,290 |
| 2010 | 78,960 | 14,280 | north: 42 south: 27 |
north: 8 south: 130 |
3,010 |
Note: The fish catch of 48,000 metric tons was the reported maximum from 1957. No data could be found for 1950. Also, data could not be found for the area of irrigated land in 2000.
This table shows data that describes some health conditions of school-age children living around the Aral Sea.
| Kazalinsk district | Zhanakorgan district | |
|---|---|---|
| distance from the Aral Sea | less than 200 kilometers | about 500 kilometers |
| prevalence of cough | 8.1% | 4.6% |
| prevalence of restrictive pulmonary dysfunction |
10% | 3% |
| prevalence of diarrhea | 11.3% | 5.6% |
| prevalence of hypercalciuria | 38.6% | 12.8% |
| sodium concentration in urine | 3.54 | 2.89 |
| calcium concentration in urine | 0.75 | 0.33 |
| sodium concentration in hair | 738 | 471 |
| bromine concentration in hair | 9.57 | 6.22 |
| nickel concentration in hair | 1.61 | 0.85 |
| mercury concentration in hair | 1.31 | 0.88 |
Note: Units for urine concentrations are mmol uNa or uCA per mmol creatinine. Units for hair concentrations are μg of the element per g of hair.
Using the information in the tables, calculate at least 4 percentages of increase or decrease that describe the situation with the Aral Sea. For each percentage, write a sentence that clearly describes what the percent increase or percent decrease represents.
The purpose of this discussion is for students to attend to precision in the language they use to describe how their percentages represent the situation with the Aral Sea. If time permits, ask students to prepare a display that shows their percentages and sentences. Encourage students to include details that will help others interpret their thinking.
Invite several students to share one of their sentences. Ask the class to respond to the sentence. This could include restating in their own words how the percentage represents the situation with the Aral Sea or giving feedback that would help clarify or strengthen the sentence. Consider asking:
Invite students to think about how the percentages they calculated tell a story with the data. Consider asking:
Optional
In this activity students apply reasoning about percent increase and decrease to information about the Great Barrier Reef. They calculate the percentage by which the coral coverage has decreased. They also calculate what the new area would be after a potential percent increase.
In the Are You Ready for More? task students explore a repeated percent increase. Although students have not learned about compounded rates, they can continue multiplying the area by 1.0089 until they reach the desired value, tracking the number of times they multiply. Students attempting this process may benefit from being shown how most calculators will use the result of the previous calculation and repeat the same operation when the “=” button is pressed repeatedly.
The Great Barrier Reef in Australia is the longest and largest coral reef in the world. Studies show that the amount of area that is actually covered by coral has been decreasing.
| year | area covered by coral (square meters) |
|---|---|
| 1985 | 96,600 |
| 2012 | 47,610 |
One cause of the decrease in coral is the crown-of-thorns starfish that eat the coral polyps. Researchers predict that if these starfish were removed, the area covered by coral would increase by 0.89% each year.
If the starfish had been removed when the coral coverage was 47,610 square miles, what would the area of coral coverage have been one year later?
Invite students to share their sentences from the first question. Ask the class to give feedback on whether the sentence clearly describes what the percentage represents.
Share with students, “Today we calculated percentages to make sense of situations involving change.”
Invite students to share how percentages can be used to describe situations. Here are some questions to elicit student thinking:
When we state a percent increase or percent decrease, it is important to be specific about what we are comparing. For example, coral coverage in the Great Barrier Reef was higher in 2022 than in earlier years.
| year of report |
percentage of coral coverage |
|---|---|
| 2000 | 23.8 |
| 2007 | 18.9 |
| 2012 | 13.1 |
| 2019 | 20.0 |
| 2022 | 35.5 |
Here are several sentences that describe the increase:
All three of these sentences correctly describe the increased coral coverage for 2022. The percentages are different because each comparison uses a different year as the original value.