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Here is some data that we will study in today’s lesson.
| input | output |
|---|---|
| 1 | 0.99 |
| 2 | 1.00 |
| 3 | 0.98 |
| 4 | 0.93 |
| 5 | 0.86 |
| 6 | 0.77 |
| 7 | 0.67 |
| 8 | 0.57 |
| 9 | 0.46 |
| 10 | 0.37 |
| input | output |
|---|---|
| 11 | 0.28 |
| 12 | 0.19 |
| 13 | 0.13 |
| 14 | 0.07 |
| 15 | 0.03 |
| 16 | 0.01 |
| 17 | 0.00 |
| 18 | 0.01 |
| 19 | 0.04 |
| 20 | 0.09 |
| input | output |
|---|---|
| 21 | 0.16 |
| 22 | 0.24 |
| 23 | 0.33 |
| 24 | 0.43 |
| 25 | 0.54 |
| 26 | 0.65 |
| 27 | 0.76 |
| 28 | 0.85 |
| 29 | 0.92 |
| 30 | 0.98 |
| 31 | 1.00 |
The data is the amount of the moon that is visible from a particular location on Earth at midnight for each day in January 2018. A value of 1 represents a full moon in which all of the illuminated portion of the moon's face is visible. A value of 0.25 means that one-fourth of the illuminated portion of the moon's face is visible.
Sometimes a phenomenon can be periodic even though it is not connected to motion in a circle. For example, here is a graph of the water level in Bridgeport, Connecticut, over a 50-hour period in 2018.
The midline of the graph appears to be around 4.5 feet. Notice that each day (or each 24-hour period) there are two high tides, a small one where the water goes up by a little less than 3 feet and then a bigger one when the tide goes up by a little more than 3 feet. Since there are two high tides per day, the period for this graph is about 12 hours. The data begins about 1 hour before the tide is at the 4.5 midline value. Since , this would make the sine function a good choice for modeling the tide.
Putting together all of our information gives the model , where measures hours since midnight on September 1.
Notice that: